On Thursday, forecast exports for U.S. soybeans dropped 250 million bushels from last month according to the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. The drop reflects the added tax on U.S. soybeans by China, which now stands at 28 percent, effective July 6. Since the trade war heated up, soybean prices have plummeted more than $2 per bushel, and now that the threats have become a reality, the government lowered the 2018-19 season-average soybean price down 75 cents at the midpoint. The forecast is $8 to $10.50 per bushel. Iowa Soybean Association CEO, Kirk Leeds says, “The report confirmed concerns farmers and industry stakeholders have had for some time—the negative impact of the trade dispute is real and happening now.” Leeds adds that if there is not a favorable resolution soon, especially with another record crop predicted, the negative effect will be even more dramatic in 2019. U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.31 billion bushels, up 30 million on increased harvested acres. Yield forecasts held steady at 48.5 bushels per acre. Although gloomy, the report was not all bad news as the U.S. soybean crush for 2018-19 was raised 45 million bushels. Drought has also reduced Argentina’s crop by more than 661 million bushels and there have been increased exports to other countries.
